Damned lies and statistics
Hi everyone
We seem to be in a kind of holding phase with the pandemic……..clearly phase one is over, the NHS survived, and numbers of new infections are low. Now in phase two people are out and about and leading reasonably normal lives, with many making hay if not babies while the sun shines. There seems to be a resignation that phase three will include local outbreaks and restrictions, continuing travel difficulties, pressure on the NHS during the winter, economic hardship through unemployment and a bit of a return to the fearfulness we previously experienced. I think this is likely until a vaccine is ready.
However, keeping abreast of the latest developments is difficult. The statistics change and are difficult to interpret – for instance you will have noticed the number of UK deaths from covid 19 recently officially dropped by 5000. In terms of immunity a survey of 100000 people showed that only about 6% of the country has antibodies. In Sweden with its open policy (not shutting down the economy and keeping most activities open) the figure is 15%. Although both may be an underestimate the prevailing wisdom is that we need around 60% of the population to be immune to effectively end the virus transmission and no-one is saying we are anyway near that – hence the need for the vaccine - and the government ordering 300 million doses from six different sources since no-one knows which one will work and how many doses people will need. Despite the huge international research effort it still feels that we are finding our way in understanding the natural history of the virus and what precisely to do about it.
Clearly the number of infections is creeping up again nationally and internationally (for those who love figures check out https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - it really has a lot of figures). The better news is that the mortality rate continues to drop as more younger people are infected and the treatment improves. It is now less than 5%. 😊 Other good news is that you can look up what your local infection rate is at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 Wiltshire today is running at 5 new cases each week per 100000 population, compared with Swindon at 41 and a national figure of 6. Local measures kick in at around 20. Countries are similarly graded according to their infection levels – with Spain currently having the highest incidence in Europe at 47. Again a figure of 20 seems to be the cut off for approved travel. The time for trips abroad has probably passed.
Well we all know how irrational we are so the figures may not really be your thing. And your ‘gut’ or other emotional drive may simply be the decider on what actions to take. For many years you will have relied on whatever your process is for making decisions and it has probably done you well so don’t give up on it. However combining it with some understanding of where we are both as a community and nationally could be the way to go. That includes knowing what the rules and penalties are – a visitor to Guernsey was fined £4000 for stopping to pick up some bottled water en route to his hotel. Serves him right - I have little sympathy for anyone buying bottled water these days.
With love