Making decisions
Hi everyone
Last week I mentioned that I had been using the covid19 symptom tracker app – two questions and you’re done. Now I see a section has been added on how much have I been isolating over the last week and it suddenly feels to me intrusive and big brother-ish. I have stopped using it. My response reflects how much I trust the collection of data and what it is being used for and this stealth like extra demand certainly provokes in me a rebellion. No discussion, no explanation, no permission sought – just an assumption that my privacy is available. My sense is many people up and down the country have had enough of lockdown and the removal of their freedoms. The message has become more blurred – nuanced the government might say. The NHS has indeed been ‘saved’ – no mean feat by all concerned – and this is praiseworthy. Hence ‘save the NHS’ is no longer on the slogans. But what are we doing now and why are we doing it?
First there’s a problem with leadership. I notice the leader in the Times on Saturday was titled ‘Where is Boris?’ and goes on to say that people are losing trust in both the policies and the policy makers. Since then the revelation of Dominic Cummings’ travels and the official response has just fed into this. The school issue is another good example. A review this week shows that children are about half as likely to catch the virus as adults and they have a mild/non-existent illness (with very few exceptions.) What is not known is how infectious they are – it would be better just to say that and then have a discussion with all the concerned parties. People are more likely to behave as adults if treated as adults – and more openness and more presence would be signs of real leadership.
Secondly there is a lack of perspective about risk. We are being asked to limit our freedoms for an unspecified length of time in the knowledge that the virus will be with us until either a vaccine is available or herd immunity is achieved. As someone said to me ‘I like the idea of herd immunity - I just don’t want to be part of the herd!’ As far as I am aware never before have the ‘well’ been asked to give up so much. This notably includes the young for whom this is a mild illness and who will pay a huge economic price in the future. Compared with other pandemics (1919 Spanish flu and 1968 Hongkong flu with 200000 and 80000 UK deaths respectively) this pandemic with so far around 36000 excess UK deaths is certainly not top of the list. If you are considering your risk when out and about, you are probably more worried about people without symptoms who are infectious. Doing the numbers is difficult, but I reckon that about one in 5000 people are becoming infected daily – or put another way - taking into account they will be infectious for several days - about one in 700 people are infectious at any one time. That is a low risk – maybe not accurate but a ball park figure.
Thirdly there is a lack of perspective about cost. The lockdown was put in place to save lives. Some say 100000 have been saved which I think is probably an excessive estimate not least due to the increased numbers dying earlier from delayed treatments and the knock on effects of the widening of the social divide. Nevertheless taking that figure the cost per life saved comes out at a whopping £2 million based on a shutdown cost of about £200 billion. It’s unprecedented. And to those who say we should not be counting the cost of saving lives I would say it has always been thus. For instance, the NHS has always had a limited budget which results in some people getting expensive life prolonging care and others not. Some of our attitudes relate to our unfamiliarity, and hence discomfort, with death and dying – Victorians talked about it a lot and never about sex; we do the reverse. And inexperience and not talking about it leads us to poor decisions and much fear.
Given such a current low risk of catching covid, and given the NHS has been shown to be able to cope, I believe the government should continue to open up society to minimise further economic damage with its related deaths and morbidity. At the same time, crucially and equally as importantly, it should be providing us with much more clear and transparent information about risks in different situations – such as going shopping, using public transport, walking with a friend outside, putting a child in school. Some of these figures would be best guess estimates but they would be really helpful. There are some tough decisions being made – for instance going back to work with higher risks of infection or losing a job. Or putting children into school when living with an elderly relative. With better information, everyone can make more informed decisions - for themselves, their family and their community. All life has an element of risk and we all make choices. We need the best help we can get – even if it is flawed at times. Providing this is one aspect of good national leadership.
With love
Derek
Answers to last week’s quiz
1. Which country in Europe has the highest
a. number of Coronavirus cases? (Russia) Spain
b. has the highest number of Coronavirus related deaths? UK
c. has the highest death rate (ie per million population) from the pandemic? Belgium
2. What is the difference between covid-19 and the coronavirus? Covid is the disease, Coronavirus is the type of virus.
3. What do the letters/numbers of covid-19 stand for? Corona Virus Disease 2019
4. Which of the following increases your risk of dying from Coronavirus?
a. Being female – no being a man does
b. Having diabetes - yes
c. Drinking 5 pints of corona a day – perhaps indirectly through weight?
d. Being from an ethnic minority – perhaps – taking other factors into account perhaps not
e. Travelling by public transport – yes – wear a mask
f. Being overweight - yes
5. From which animal is it thought the virus transferred to humans? Probably the pangolin infected by a bat
6. How many people so far have died worldwide from this pandemic? And in the 1919 flu pandemic? About 350000, compared with in excess of 20 million in 1919 ie 1-2% of that
7. Where is corona beer made? Mexico
8. Which animal is in danger in the UK where there are future local outbreaks of infection? The Mole – Boris’ ‘whack a mole’ approach for local outbreaks……perhaps not enough lateral thinking there?
9. Which of the following safely reduces the spread of infection?
a. Drinking domestos – no – it’s lethal
b. Social distancing - yes
c. Wearing a mask – yes in crowded indoor places
d. Being outside - yes
e. Using a 50% alcohol gel – no – minimum 65%
10. When Carrie said to Boris ‘A no. 10 baby’ and he said ‘I didn’t think it was that many’ were they both right? How many children does Boris have? Both right and according to the media Boris now has six children.
A six pack of corona beer to anyone who got question 8 right!
I welcome feedback and do send details of any resources you have found particularly useful.
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